Once upon a time, there was a little
company called Microsoft. They made Operating Systems. They sold
these operating systems to businesses, who liked them. They like
them because it helped the companies be more productive. The
workers, liking the operating systems at work, brought them home with
them because it was better to use at home what they used at work. In
this way, the world of the personal computer opened up to the masses
and the PC became as ubiquitous in the home as the television set.
The operating system in more than 95%
of the PC's in the world was called "Windows."
For twenty years (and more) Microsoft
was a company that specialized in providing businesses (and by
extension all computer users) an operating system that was geared
toward productivity. But there were other things people wanted to do
with PC's so Microsoft helped make Windows the defacto OS of choice
in gaming, and even more people bought PC's just so they could get
some blob of pixels from the bottom of the screen to the top. Of
course, gaming has evolved over twenty years, too, and that blob now
is usually some scantily dressed, buxom, long-haired, thin-waisted,
wide hipped, pointy-eared, white-haired realistic looking avatar
running through a near realistic looking world spraying blood in all
directions with a sword three times bigger than she is. But I
digress...
With gaming on Windows, the PC was
firmly cemented into the homes, places of employment and lives of the
general public. Other improvements came and were added to the
experience, but overall, productivity at work is what started the
movement, and gaming made Windows the choice of operating systems
world-wide.
And now, all of that will go away.
It seems like a stretch to say that the
most popular operating system on the planet will die a horrible death
of attrition, but it will because the makers of Windows apparently
forgot why Windows became so popular in the first place: Business
productivity. At the heart of every business lies the (not
unreasonable) motive of profit. Profit is improved when employees
are more productive, and decreases when they are not. It's a very
basic, very straight-forward notion and is the foundation upon which
businesses (at least SMART businesses) operate.
For decades Windows was designed around
generally the same idea – a button that would give the user access
to all of the things that made Windows go and all of the programs
that could be used on Windows, all without cluttering up the screen.
A cluttered screen is a distracting screen. Even though an icon can
be right in front of you, if you have to search for it (and you do if
you have a ton of them on your screen) that takes time away from
actually doing work than if you can find it more quickly and far more
easily through a guided effort. That's what the Start button was all
about.
Now, back when the start button first
appeared, it was reviled. It was hated. People loathed it. All ten
of them. The others, who heard the new Windows (the first with the
start button called Windows 95) was better, didn't much care about
the contradictions of clicking Start to turn the thing off. They
learned the new system just fine because for the most part, there
wasn't really anything else VIABLE or AFFORDABLE out there. The few
who grumbled were drown out by the many who came after and the PC
took off. Especially when gaming came to Windows in a big way.
Over the years, the look and feel of
Windows operating systems have changed, but the start button was a
reliable consistency in how it gave access (sometimes better than
others) to everything. And over the years, those ten people who
bitched about the Start button became billions who loved it and were
used to it. The PC sales started dropping off, not because people
weren't buying them anymore, but because they already HAD ONE. This
is called market saturation. You can't sell them to "new"
people because there aren't as many people who don't have one as
there are those who do. It's a replacement-level sales trend. It's
not up or down. It's relatively consistent. One would think of this
as an excellent and reliable source of revenue for the company that
makes it, and one would be right.
But we live in a world where
businessmen have become so delusional as to think that revenue has to
INCREASE all the time, quarter over quarter. They're not content
with a reliable, if flat, revenue stream. Windows was selling, but
not selling with spectacular multi-digit market gains year over year.
And for some insane reason, the folks who ran Microsoft saw that as
a bad thing. So they kept putting out new operating systems in the
hope that by doing that, they'd see market growth and revenue
increases.
Then along came a tempting fruit from
the Garden of Cupertino – the APPLE STORE!
This was basically something called
"multimedia". Music and video. You don't get a lot of
productivity from workers playing music and watching videos. But you
do get a lot of people who like to watch videos and listen to music,
so Apple's proprietary (and crappy) little iTunes program evolved
into the Apple Store.
The Apple Store arose to prominence
because of things called "smartphones". Smartphones were
devices that relied on touching the screen and a thing called "finger
painting" to start programs (now renamed "apps"), to
move things around and to dial. Shortly thereafter came devices
called Tablets. These were basically smartphones that didn't make
calls over a cell phone network, and were larger. They, too, were
designed for multimedia – videos and music mostly. They
essentially replaced the primitive "media players" of the
time because they could do things like simplistic games and e-mail
that the media players couldn't do. But they were also horribly
inefficient at tasks involving productivity. They were slower, had
less capacity and the way one used them (touch) was slower and had
more mistakes than using mice and keyboards.
In order to make these devices run, a
new way of dealing with a touch screen was developed – actually
several of them were. While the touch screen worked well for the
smaller devices designed for things like watching videos and simple
touch games, they weren't so good for things like writing reports,
detailed e-mail, rendering video, burning DVD's and CD's and other
things that most people were still doing on their PC's at home, and
most especially at work.
Don't forget about businesses, here.
That's important.
All of the focus driving businesses
changed to the mobile user. These are the brain-dead dweebs
slack-jawed and drooling at the videos they were playing on their
smartphones and tablets and walking into fountains and poles and
raising the cost of healthcare for everyone else who pays attention
to where they're going. The mobile market was hip and cool and more
importantly, had massive sales increases year over year. This is
where Microsoft wanted to play, and hadn't because they stayed
focused on businesses. They didn't get into the Smartphone
revolution that heavily and only did it begrudgingly because they saw
little return for the investment.
And then Google created Android –
another OS designed for the tablets and smartphones – and, more to
the point, created the Google Store to also sell "apps".
And this was wildly popular because most people don't really like
Apple. Pretty soon, Google was making a pretty penny because it
takes a cut of profits for every app sold. So does Apple, and Apple
becomes the largest company (by revenue, not user base) in the world.
This is mostly because Apple takes a mandatory 30% of the sale price
of everything it offers, and they cheat people illegally to boot (the
e-book scandal), but the example was set in how to monetize mobility.
App sales and ad revenue.
This is actually a part of something
recently called a tech company "ecosystem" whereby the
maker of the operating system sells their own devices (or licenses
them), hosts its own development system and its own distribution
system for the content they deliver – content like music and videos
and advertising. They charge for services as well. And it's all
practically free of overhead once the initial investment in the
infrastructure is made. Other people make the content. The company
skims off the top in getting that content to the end user.
Now, Microsoft, with its eye on
business, is kind of hampered in this. But because stockholders want
unreasonable things, they decided to give it a shot and instead of
going slowly and doing it right, they went quickly and did just about
everything they could possibly have done wrong.
First they created the tablet called
the Surface. There were several flavors of them, including an
offering called the "RT", which given it's reception, seems
to stand for "Rejected Tablet". But note that these were
all TABLETS. Note, too, that some of them had the power of a laptop.
It all sounded good in principle and maybe even on paper, but let's
look at a tablet set up like a laptop and a laptop.
The Surface has a touch interface. A
laptop doesn't. A Surface needs a stand to stand up. They had to
build a stand in. If you touch the screen, it falls over. A laptop
doesn't need its screen touched and stands up all by itself. A
Surface has a detachable keyboard that can get lost or stolen or more
easily broken. A laptop doesn't. A Surface comes with a limited
variety of component options. A laptop's component options are much
greater. With one exception (the more expensive one), the keyboards
for the Surface suck when it comes to typing. Laptop keyboards are
optimized for typing.
In short, the Surface was basically a
crippled or at least handicapped laptop – all for the cost of a
much better (specification-wise) laptop. Who the hell would want
one? And the Surface RT didn't even have the dubious advantage of
the full operating system's capabilities.
Now, we could go around and around
about the prudence of making something like the Surface when there
are much better tablets out there for less. But it's just a
byproduct of the problem. The problem is that Windows is no longer
focused on business.
Microsoft created Windows 8. And
that's why Windows will go the way of the do-do bird:
1. Windows 8 is designed primarily for smartphones and tablets. It has a touch-centric user interface.
2. It has no start button (at least not like the one all previous versions of Windows had since 1995).
3. Microsoft's smartphone has a market share that is negligible.
4. Microsoft has very few offerings for apps, for either Smartphones OR PC's.
5. Windows 8 (and 8.1) are all you can get for a PC these days due to Microsoft dedication to the idea of creating its own ecosystem.
6. Most Windows users don't use Windows 8 or 8.1.
7. There are a hell of a lot more Windows users now than in 1995.
8. Valve is creating a SteamOS based on Linux.
None of these factors, by itself, spell
the death of Windows. It's the combination of all of them that will
do it. Like the perfect storm of happenstance, market pressures,
short-sightedness, user expectation and business needs all will
conspire to make Windows extinct no later than the end of the service
life of Windows 7. And like a perfect storm of disaster, the
combinations recombine in thoroughly predictable ways to become a
disaster that is far, far worse than the sum of its influences.
This is how it works.
Microsoft sought to leverage it's
billions (yes, billions with a B) of Windows users into nearly
instant customers of the "Microsoft App Store". They did
this by creating an all-in-one user interface for all devices –
tablets, smartphones and PC's alike. They marketed it as being
"easier on the end user to have them use the same operating
system in all of their devices." By doing this, they could make
up in their PC customer base what they lacked in variety of apps and
low smartphone and tablet market share. It seems reasonable just as
long as you don't ask anyone in Enterprise what they think of being
forced into that "ecosystem" that is designed around
DISTRACTION and ENTERTAINMENT.
And in this strategy, the seeds of the
destruction of Windows were sown.
They utterly ignored the fact that NO
ONE was demanding this all-in-one "convenience". People
were used to using different (and more optimized for mobile)
operating systems on their mobile devices. There was no call
whatsoever for an all-in-one solution. The mobile devices
significantly differed in form and general function. People
naturally expected to have to interact with each in their own way.
Creating an all in one solution for all different devices is directly
analogous to putting the control system of a glider into the cockpit
of a 787, and telling the pilots that the rest of the controls are in
the restroom.
What's worse, they put a user interface
optimized to deliver and display content that is distracting and
entertaining into a device that has always been intended to be a
productivity tool. Business didn't take to Windows like candy at an
orphanage because employees could play games and watch video and
listen to music and waste time. They did it because Windows focused
on PRODUCTIVITY. Windows 8 isn't about productivity. It's strictly
about delivering distracting and entertaining content to users at a
fee. In this case, the fee is advertising – which is distracting
to say the least.
So this undermines the entire purpose
for having a productivity-based OS. That, businesses might get over,
but the lack of the Start button's previous functionality will be the
straw that breaks the camel's back. And again, it goes to
productivity. In all OS's there has been a learning curve. But with
the basic functionality drastically altered between the previous five
Windows OS's and Windows 8 and 8.1, productivity will suffer greatly
in the short term – and more in the long term. Yes, people can get
used to doing things differently and that is the great suffering of
productivity in the short term. Training end users to use it. But
over the long term, the way it's been revamped, each thing that they
used to do takes MORE CLICKS TO DO IT. It's not a lot of time for
each instance of having to do it, but multiply it out and it will
cost millions, if not billions, of dollars each year. If a million
users take two seconds longer each day to do what they did before
because of the design of the operating system, that's two million
seconds wasted each day. That's 555 hours of lost productivity per
day per million users.
There are billions of Windows business
users.
Toss in the higher cost of Windows 8
and you have a perfect storm of Enterprise discontent.
A lot of businesses will turn to Linux.
Linux is a free operating system that, like Windows, users must pay
for any support they get. Linux is open source. Open source
software is generally free or have considerably smaller license fees
than their commercial counterparts. And those programs replicate to
about 99% what all of the other programs that Microsoft (and other
companies) can do. This means that, today, Linux is a viable
replacement for Windows.
And Linux has the equivalent of a start
button, so the learning curve is actually lower for the end user.
But it's Valve's SteamOS that will
destroy Windows.
Enterprise is already upset with
Microsoft Windows 8 and 8.1. The distractions they provide will
negatively impact productivity. There is already a high capital cost
in licensing, implementation and training for ANY new OS. Microsoft
has proven itself unreliable in providing a consistent user interface
experience, while Linux has maintained one at least as well as the
pre-Win8 versions did. The adoption of Windows OS was initially
based on what workers at work experienced on their computers, and as
more businesses start shifting toward a less costly, more
productivity-oriented OS than Windows 8, more and more end users will
want to not have to switch between one and the other at home. They,
too will start to switch to Linux, because, like before in the
Windows adoption days, they'll have been taught how to use it at
work.
That's where Valve's SteamOS will nail
Windows. The ONLY thing that Windows has going for it is its gaming
experience. It's the defacto gaming OS. Or it was until Microsoft
decided to compete directly with the gaming industry by creating a
distracting, entertainment-oriented OS to be put on productivity
machines intending to absorb gaming revenue. Microsoft wants a cut
of that revenue. The gaming industry isn't really excited about
that.
Gaming will go rogue so they can
maintain control over their games, and their wallets. Now, this may
seem like a non sequitur. Windows 8 is, arguably, a better gaming
platform. And it probably is. But if the gaming industry isn't
selling games for Windows 8 (and given Windows 8 market share, they'd
be idiots to do that) and as Enterprise embraces the distinct
advantages of Linux in the face of growing disadvantages by sticking
with a new Microsoft OS product, and as people start using Linux at
home and finding out it's pretty much the same thing as they're used
to, and they can play games, too, then Microsoft Windows is in major
trouble.
There is no longer a distinct advantage
to having Windows. It's not a productivity OS anymore (though it can
be with more effort that takes away more productivity than what Linux
offers today). It's not the exclusive gaming OS anymore (Though
admittedly, SteamOS isn't live yet, but they're coming, and other
gaming producers are coming out very interested in this model). It's
less expensive than Windows. It's generally more secure than
Windows. And software in open source is always less expensive (and
works just about as well and in the same way) as anything
commercially offered for Windows. Linux has the advantage of being
the defacto choice in servers for a large part of the world, making
integration into an existing infrastructure a snap.
In short, all of the disadvantages of
having Linux have been (or will soon be) gone and Microsoft has shot
itself in the testicles by trying to turn itself into another Apple
or Google without making DAMN SURE that Enterprise was happy with
them.
Worst of all, as Windows sales drop,
their market share in tablets and smartphones will drop right along
with it because it isn't large enough to sustain itself.
Microsoft took their eyes off of their
roots, then cut them off to please their shareholders through a
short-sighted, poorly reasoned business strategy. And like any plant
deprived of its roots, Windows will surely wither and die.
The moral of this story is, always look
ahead, but never ignore your roots.
The end.